I get asked about Yellowstone at least a few times a month. Information technology'due south almost never a question about the gorgeous geysers, hot springs, mud pots, or other hydrothermal features. People don't even ask me where the Yellowstone hotspot was hanging out before information technology got to Wyoming (I'm going to tell yous about information technology in an upcoming postal service, though!). The questions I get most frequently nearly America's most famous volcanic National Park are these:

1. Is Yellowstone going to erupt before long?

ii. When it does, will it destroy civilization?

Those questions honestly make me sad, because there's so much exciting stuff about it, and it all gets cached under a metric crapton of sensationalism and misinformation, delivered almost daily by various press outlets and tv set specials. Has Yellowstone experienced enormous eruptions in the past? It definitely has, repeatedly. Volition it erupt on those huge scales again? Quite mayhap! But we're going to see why the volcanologists at Yellowstone Volcano Observatory aren't placing their bets on a Big I happening any time before long (even on a geologic timescale), and why civilisation every bit a whole volition probably survive the blast fifty-fifty if it does.

If you make up one's mind not to read on and just desire the quick answers, here'south the tl;dr:

1. Yes, it volition! Simply the next eruption is likely to be pretty small, just a flake of lava extruding with maybe pocket-size amounts of ash. And with all of the equipment we've got the volcano wired with, nosotros'll take aplenty notice.

ii. If the adjacent enormous eruption happens in our lifetimes, there will of grade be decease and devastation, but not enough to destroy the United States, or fifty-fifty but the American Westward. Civilisation as we know it will survive.

Lamentable to disappoint.

The true story of Yellowstone isn't anywhere most every bit terrifying and dramatic every bit the incoherent articles and dire documentaries would have you believe. But in the science world, reality rules. And it'south not like an enormous caldera blown in the northwest corner of Wyoming, sitting atop a big and active magma chamber, filled with hydrothermal activity, tin in whatsoever way exist irksome! Let'southward accommodate our expectations and fix some rumors to rest.

Isn't Yellowstone overdue for an eruption?

Most definitely non:

"Overdue" can apply to library books, bills, and oil changes, just it does not apply to Yellowstone!

In terms of large explosions, Yellowstone has experienced three -- at 2.08, one.3, and 0.631 million years ago. This comes out to an average of well-nigh 725,000 years between eruptions. That being the instance, we still have about 100,000 years to go, only this number is based on very little data and and then is basically meaningless (would you base whatsoever determination on the average of only two numbers?). The betoken, however, is that if someone, or some article or documentary, says that Yellowstone erupts every 600,000 years, you know right off the bat that they are full of baloney....

With rare exceptions, volcanoes do not accumulate magma at a constant rate (in the few cases where that does happen, eruptions can be somewhat regular). Instead, volcanoes erupt when at that place is a sufficient supply of liquid magma in the subsurface and sufficient pressure to cause that magma to arise to the surface. This does not generally happen on a schedule.

Okay, but, when it does become, information technology'll wipe out humanity, or at least most of North America, right?

I know, I know, you're really hoping for something epic disaster-movie worthy, simply I'm afraid the scientific discipline says...

No, Yellowstone isn't going to wipe out humanity

YVO gets a lot of questions about the potential for Yellowstone, or some other caldera organisation, to finish all life on Globe. Then, we'll answer that question right off the bat—no, a large explosive eruption at Yellowstone will not lead to the terminate of the human race (almost Yellowstone eruptions practise not fit this worst-instance scenario anyhow, only rather are lava flows). The aftermath of such an explosion wouldn't be pleasant, certainly, but nosotros won't get extinct. How practice nosotros know? Considering this "super eruption" experiment has already been run. Twice!

Simply it has to be dangerous! People wouldn't brand such a big deal out of information technology if it wasn't!

Correct! Yellowstone may not be a man-species ender, but that doesn't mean it's non hazardous! Hazards grow, and the expert people at YVO are keeping a close middle on them. Number 2 on this list volition definitely surprise you!

The Real Hazards of Yellowstone

News manufactures, websites, and videos oft exaggerate the rarest events, while ignoring hazards that may actually happen during a person'due south life. And then correct here, right now, nosotros're going to flip this around and talk over Yellowstone's geologic adventure scenarios in order from most to least likely

Okay, just, surely, Yellowstone's at the meridian of the listing when information technology comes to the nearly dangerous volcanoes in the United States, right?

Alas, no. It'south not.

Top 5?

Deplorable, nope.

...Peak 10?

You know information technology kills me to disappoint you, right?

The USGS volcano threat assessment -- how was it determined, and what does information technology mean for Yellowstone

The overall threat score is determined past multiplying the sum of the hazard factors by the sum of the exposure factors. The acme 3 volcanoes, in order, are Kilauea (Hawaii), Mount St. Helens (Washington), and Mount Rainier (Washington). A general categorization was also introduced – "very loftier threat," "high threat," "moderate threat," "low threat," and "very low threat."In 2005, Yellowstone was ranked #21 in the threat assessment. Now for the big reveal…in 2018…Yellowstone was ranked…#21! This qualifies Yellowstone every bit a "high threat" volcanic system. This is not a alter or any sort of upgrade in the threat posed past Yellowstone, and carries no implications for time to come eruptive action. It is merely a fashion to provide a sense of Yellowstone'south threat level compared to other volcanoes in the United states of america.

Relative to the other US calderas, Yellowstone lies in the heart. Long Valley caldera is #18 ("very loftier threat") and Valles caldera is #68 ("moderate threat").

Please say information technology'southward a supervolcano. Please.

I'1000 and so sorry.

But if it's whatsoever consolation, you tin can call whatever eruption VEI 8 or greater a super eruption!

A personal commentary: Why I dislike the term "supervolcano" (and what we should be saying instead)

I have a confession to brand. I actually don't like the term "supervolcano." And I'd like to apply this week's edition of Yellowstone Caldera Chronicles to rant virtually the topic. I'd also like to propose that nosotros use a different term.

Dang it.

I know. Reality doesn't always live upwards to the hype - especially when some individuals and publications like to... how to put this delicately... prevarication like bad carpets in gild to get attention. Check out some of the nonsense YVO has to put upwardly with!

Playing phone with Miss Information

Can a nuclear smash trigger a Yellowstone eruption? No. But how about an convulsion? Also no.

Wait - won't earthquakes on the Band of Fire trigger eruptions?!

I'm just going to stand bated and let this headline say the needful:

Will the southern California earthquakes cause Yellowstone to erupt? Spoiler alert: no.

Basically: rumors of Yellowstone'due south impending catastrophic mega-eruption have been exponentially exaggerated. Don't fall for the hype. Plan your visit to the national park without a single fear that the entire place will suddenly erupt in a volcanic calamity worthy of the near overblown tabloid imagining. Alive in the area without worrying about being enveloped in an unexpected pyroclastic flow. The staff at Yellowstone Volcano Observatory are paying strict attention, and will be able to give you lot enough of accelerate discover when the magma bedroom fills to super eruption chapters.

Meanwhile, relish some of the best agile hydrothermal features on the planet!